关键词: 肠造口；潮湿相关性皮肤损伤；风险预测模型；系统评价；Meta分析

Abstract: Objective: To analyze existing prediction models for the risk of Peristomal Moisture-Associated Skin Damage (PMASD) in patients with enterostomy and provide references for model optimization. Methods: A systematic search was conducted in Chinese and English databases for studies related to PMASD, the search period extended from database inception to March 7, 2025. Two researchers independently screened and extracted data from the literature. Meta-analysis of effect sizes for common predictors across models was performed using Stata 16.0 software. Results: A total of 6 studies were included, all of which reported AUC values >0.8, indicating good predictive performance. However, the overall risk of bias in these studies was relatively high. Gender, stoma site, stoma height, presence of a surgical incision in the peristomal area, soft diet, semi-liquid diet, and history of radiotherapy/chemotherapy were significant predictors of PMASD (all P<0.05). Conclusion: Most existing models demonstrate strong discriminative ability during development, yet there is room for improvement in methodological rigor and clinical applicability. Future development of prediction models should prioritize the common predictors identified in this Meta-analysis, with emphasis on methodological robustness, model validation, and standardization of definitions.

Key words: enterostomy; moisture-associated skin damage; risk prediction model; systematic review; Meta-analysis