关键词: 系统动力学；老年护理服务；政策仿真；护理人才；长期护理保险

Abstract: Objective: To examine the implementation effects of Beijing's policies for elderly care services, and to provide evidence for policy optimization and evidence-based decisionmaking. Methods: A system dynamics model was constructed and calibrated using data from the Beijing Statistical Yearbook (2015-2025). Simulations of policy trends from 2026 to 2035 were performed using Vensim PLE software. Four intervention scenarios were designed—namely, optimized financial investment, nursing workforce development, long-term care insurance enhancement, and a composite performance index—and the simulation outcomes under these scenarios were compared. Results: The model demonstrated goodness of fit and robustness, with relative errors below 5%. Simulation results indicated that optimized financial investment alone cannot resolve the nursing workforce shortage; nursing workforce development alone cannot correct resource misallocation; and even after long-term care insurance enhancement, workforce gaps and resource misallocation remain prominent. Furthermore, the composite performance index was found to be correlated with the supply-demand ratio, population gap, individual financial burden, and fiscal sustainability. Conclusion: The elderly care service system in Beijing exhibits complex bidirectional feedback among population demand, service supply, and fiscal investment. No single policy instrument is sufficient to overcome the structural contradictions; therefore, stronger coordination among multiple policy instruments is essential.

Key words: systems dynamics; elderly care services; policy simulation; nursing professionals; long-term care insurance.