关键词: 护理人力资源；综合医院；注册护士；组合预测模型

Abstract: Objective: To examine the current status and trends of nursing human resource allocation in general hospitals in Gansu province and to forecast the number of registered nurses in the recent 3 years, providing evidence for optimizing regional nursing workforce allocation. Methods: Based on data from the Gansu Provincial Health Statistics Yearbook from 2017 to 2024 and raw nursing-sensitive quality indicator data reported by 97 general hospitals in Gansu province to the National Nursing Quality Data Platform in 2024, this study described the current status and temporal trends of nursing human resource allocation in general hospitals in Gansu province. A combined grey model, principal component analysis, and back-propagation neural network model was used to forecast the number of registered nurses in general hospitals in Gansu province from 2025 to 2027. Results: From 2017 to 2024, the number of registered nurses in general hospitals in Gansu province increased continuously, and the physician-nurse ratio, bed-nurse ratio, and health technician-nurse ratio improved overall. A total of 49 tertiary general hospitals and 48 secondary general hospitals were included in the analysis. Compared with secondary hospitals, tertiary hospitals had a higher bed-nurse ratio, a higher proportion of nurses with a bachelor's degree or above, a higher proportion of nurses with the title of supervisor nurse or above, and a lower nurse turnover rate. Significant differences were observed across cities/prefectures in the bed-nurse ratio, the proportion of nurses with a bachelor's degree or above, and the proportion of nurses with the title of supervisor nurse or above. The predicted numbers of registered nurses in general hospitals in Gansu province were 51,908 in 2025, 52,759 in 2026, and 53,486 in 2027. Conclusion: The supply of nursing human resources in general hospitals in Gansu province has continued to expand. However, disparities remain in both internal workforce structure and external distribution. The equity and suitability of nursing workforce allocation still need to be improved. Future efforts should focus on optimizing the nursing workforce structure, strengthening support for secondary hospitals and under-resourced areas, and improving the overall quality of nursing human resource allocation.

Key words: nursing human resources; general hospital; registered nurse; combined forecasting model