关键词: 护理；管理；人力资源；人口老龄化；耦合协调度

Abstract: Objective: To analyze the coupling and coordination relationship between nursing human resource allocation and population aging levels in Beijing, as well as its spatiotemporal evolution, and provide a basis for the precise allocation of geriatric care resources. Methods: Based on the data from 16 districts in Beijing from 2015 to 2024, a two-system evaluation system of nursing human resource allocation and population aging levels was constructed, and the coupling coordination degree model, kernel density estimation, spatial autocorrelation, and spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression were used for analysis. Results: From 2015 to 2024, the average coupling coordination degree of the city increased from 0.423 to 0.542, with the coordination level improving from nearly disordered to barely coordinated. The kernel density curve shifted toward higher values, though regional disparities persisted. The global Moran's Index rose from 0.496 to 0.789, showing a significant positive correlation, with the central urban area forming high-high clustering, while Tongzhou district and Daxing district exhibited low-high outliers. Resident population density, per capita health expenditure budget, and urbanization rate all positively influenced the coupling coordination degree, whereas the proportion of non-local permanent residents had a negative impact. Conclusion: The coordination relationship between the two systems in Beijing generally improved, but inter-district disparities remain notable. Nursing human resource allocation should be guided by the demand for population aging care, with a focus on differentiated and dynamic adjustments, prioritizing the enhancement of primary care, geriatric care, and home-based nursing services in areas with low coordination and rapid population influx.

Key words: nursing; management; human resources; population aging; coupling coordination degree