关键词: 护理人力资源；洛伦兹曲线；基尼系数；灰色系统GM（1，1）模型；公平性

Abstract: Objective: To analyze the current situation and equity of nursing human resources allocation in Hunan province from 2011 to 2020, and predict the development trend of nursing human resources. Methods: Descriptive statistics, Lorentz curve and Gini coefficient were used to analyze the status and equity of nursing human resources allocation, and GM (1,1) was used to predict the development trend of nursing humans resources. Results: From 2011 to 2020, the overall nursing human resources in Hunan province showed an increasing trend. Compared to 2011, the number of registered nurses in 2020 Hunan province increased by 135,119 nursing staff (average annual growth rate of 9.83%), the number of registered nurses per thousand population increased by 2.14, and the number of registered nurses per square kilometer increased by 0.64. The Gini coefficients of population and regional area were 0.07 and 0.30 respectively. Grey system GM (1,1) model was well-fitted, and the predicted results showed that the total number of nursing staff and the number of registered nurses per thousand population would continue to increase in Hunan province from 2021 to 2025. Conclusion: The nursing human resources in Hunan province increase steadily, but the overall allocation is insufficient, and the equity of population distribution of nursing human resources is better than the equity of regional area distribution. The government should optimize the equity of regional allocation of nursing human resources, and promote the structure of nursing human resources more reasonable, scientific and modern.

Key words: nursing human resources; Lorentz curve; Gini coefficient; Grey model GM (1,1); equity