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Nomogram risk prediction model of hypothermia in patients with acute trauma
YAN Leilei, LIAO Dejun, JIN Qianqian, WANG Lingling, ZHENG Tingting
Chinese Nursing Management. 2022, 22 (7):
1015-1020.
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-1756.2022.07.011
Objective: To explore the correlation between Revised Trauma Score (RTS) and hypothermia in patients with acute trauma, and to construct a Nomogram model to predict the risk of hypothermia in patients with acute trauma based on the RTS results. Methods: A total of 239 patients with acute trauma admitted in the emergency trauma center of a tertiary grade A hospital from January 2016 to February 2020 were selected. The general clinical data, laboratory examination results and hypothermia of all the participants were recorded, and the degree of trauma was evaluated by RTS. Patients were divided into hypothermia group (36) and non-hypothermia group (≥?36) according to their body temperature. The general clinical data, laboratory examination results and RTS of the two groups were compared. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the independent risk factors affecting hypothermia in patients with acute trauma and Nomogram model was constructed. Results: Severity of trauma, low systolic blood pressure, low SpO2 , high SI and low RTS were independent risk factors affecting hypothermia in acute trauma patients. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) for evaluating hypothermia in acute trauma patients combined with independent risk factors was 0.990 (P<0.05, 95%CI: 0.981-0.999). According to the calibration curve of the Nomogram model's predictive power, the C-index was 0.890, which was in good agreement with the ideal curve. Conclusion: ISS?>?10.5, SBP?117 mmHg (1 mmHg=0.133 kPa), SpO2?91%, SI?>?0.86, and RTS 4.22 are independent risk factors for predicting hypothermia in acute trauma patients. The Nomogram model constructed by these independent risk factors has profound clinical value for early screening of patients at high risk of hypothermia and improvement and management of nursing process in acute trauma.
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