关键词: 缺血性脑卒中；老年人；危险因素；预测模型；非计划性再入院

Abstract: Objective: To investigate the incidence and risk factors of unplanned readmission in elderly patients with ischemic stroke, and to develop the risk prediction model. Methods: Totally 328 elderly inpatients with ischemic stroke in the neurology ward of a tertiary hospital in Beijing were recruited from September 2018 to October 2019. The general information survey questionnaire and the Readiness for Hospital Discharge Scale (RHDS) were used for the questionnair survey, and the patients were followed up to 31 days after discharge. Results: Totally 52 patients (15.9%) were readmitted. Marital status, smoking, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, atrial fibrillation, ADL score, hospitalization days, and RHDS score were independent risk factors for unplanned readmission in elderly patients with ischemic stroke (P<0.05), AUC was 0.995, the maximum value of the Youden index was 0.790, and the sensitivity was 94.2%, the specificity was 84.8%, and the cutoff value was 0.148. Conclusion: The risk prediction model of unplanned readmission in elderly patients with ischemic stroke established in this study was with a good predictive effect, and it could be used in early identification of those elderly with high-risk in unplanned readmission.

Key words: ischemic stroke; aged; risk factors; risk prediction model; unplanned readmission