关键词: 护理人力资源；空间分布；地区差异；需求预测

Abstract: Objective: To analyze the spatial differences and dynamic evolution process of nursing human resource allocation in Anhui province, predict the development trend of nursing human resources, and provide reference for optimizing nursing human resource allocation in Anhui province. Methods: Nursing human resource data was extracted from Anhui province from 2013 to 2022. Dagum Gini coefficient and kernel density estimation methods were used to analyze the spatial differences and dynamic evolution process of nursing human resource allocation in Anhui province, and exponential smoothing method was used to predict the development trend of nursing human resources in Anhui province. Results: The regional differences in the allocation of nursing human resources within Anhui province from 2013 to 2022 had been narrowing year by year. In terms of dynamic evolution, the level of nursing human resource allocation in Anhui province continued to improve, showing a trend of gathering. In terms of demand forecasting, the number of registered nurses in Anhui province is expected to reach 374600 by 2030, and the number of registered nurses per thousand people will be 6.16. Conclusion: The total amount of nursing human resources in Anhui province is continuously increasing, and the level of allocation is constantly improving. The government should strengthen the construction of nursing teams, strengthen control and allocation and improve nursing service models, in order to further enhance the level of nursing human resource allocation in Anhui province.

Key words: nursing human resource; spatial distribution; regional difference; demand forecast