关键词: 老年人；住院；功能下降；预测模型；系统评价

Abstract: Objective: To systematically review the risk prediction model for functional decline in older hospitalized patients. Methods: Studies of multivariate models for predicting the risk of functional decline in older hospitalized patients were searched in Chinese and English databases from their inception to August 31, 2023. Two researchers screened the articles, extracted the data, and evaluated the risk of bias and applicability of the included studies. Results: A total of 15 studies involving 9 prediction models were included. The area under the Receiver Operating characteristic Curve or C-index ranged from 0.650 to 0.801, and 8 models were greater than 0.7. The most common predictors were age, cognitive impairment, impairment in instrumental Activities of Daily Living before admission, and history of falls. Fourteen studies were at high risk of bias, one was unclear, and all had good applicability. Conclusion: The overall performance of the risk prediction models for functional decline in older hospitalized patients is good, but the risk of bias is high. It provides a basis for future clinical selection of models or development of new models.

Key words: aged; hospitalization; functional decline; prediction model; systematic review