主管:国家卫生健康委员会
主办:国家卫生计生委医院管理研究所
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A risk assessment model for Peripherally Inserted Central Catheter related deep vein thrombosis in elderly inpatients

  

  • Online:2017-04-25 Published:2017-04-25

Abstract: Objective: To identify risk factors for Peripherally Inserted Central Catheter (PICC)-related Deep Vein Thrombosis (DVT) in elderly inpatients and develop a predict model of PICC-DVT. Methods: The data from 564 elderly inpatients receiving a PICC in PLA General Hospital between January 2008 and December 2015 were retrospectively analyzed. Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify risk factors and develop the PICC-DVT risk assessment model. The patients were stratified by risk of PICC-DVT using Jonckheere trend test. The model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Results: Atrial fibrillation (AF), atherosclerosis, recent operation and prior vein thrombosis (VTE) were the key risk factors (P<0.05). PICC-DVT risk index=1.302χ1 (prior VTE) +0.775χ2 (recent operation)+0.596χ3 (AF)+0.610χ4 (atherosclerosis). With the increase of risk index, the incident of PICC-DVT increased significantly. The area below the ROC curve of the model was 0.73. Conclusion: AF, atherosclerosis, recent operation and prior VTE were the independent risk factors of PICC-DVT. The predict model is reliable in predicting PICC-related deep venous thrombosis.